New York, Nov 3 (IANS) – As the United States prepares for its next presidential election, a clear outcome may be elusive on election night, November 5, unless either Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump secures decisive victories in key states, especially swing states. If margins are narrow, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, which polls show at a razor-thin 0.4% lead for Trump, the results may remain uncertain for days or even weeks.
Close elections in the U.S. often lead to recounts and legal challenges, extending the wait for final results. While losing candidates traditionally concede early if results are clear, Trump notably refused to accept his loss to President Joe Biden in 2020, indicating he might challenge any close defeat this time. Similarly, Harris could pursue legal action if results hinge on small margins.
The U.S. presidential election operates via an electoral college system of 538 members, whose votes are awarded based on state popular votes rather than nationwide totals. This means that while one candidate may win the popular vote, they could still lose if they lack an electoral college majority. For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more popular votes than Trump but lost the electoral college by 306 to 227.
This year's election centers on seven critical swing states, holding 93 electoral votes, which will ultimately determine the winner. However, unlike centralized election commissions in other nations, the U.S. relies on individual states to oversee voting and counting procedures. Each state has its own timelines for closing polls and counting mail-in ballots, which can vary widely.
If absentee and mail-in ballots exceed the in-person voting margin, states may delay results to complete counts, adding to the overall uncertainty. In 2020, it took four days after election night for major news outlets to project a winner due to close results and prolonged counting. Additionally, if any party demands a recount, as seen in the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, results could be further delayed. That election’s Florida recount dispute took 35 days and was only resolved when the Supreme Court stepped in on December 12.
Election night projections may begin around 9 p.m. Eastern Time on November 5 (7:30 a.m. IST), with Pennsylvania among the first swing states to close polls. Final results could come as early as midnight, but narrow margins or legal battles could prolong the process, with official electoral vote tallies due by December 11.
Should there be significant delays, governors of each state must submit certified electoral vote counts by December 11. The electoral college meets on December 17 to formally cast its votes for the next president.
With states following different rules for counting and certifying results, the timeline for determining the winner of the U.S. presidential election may extend well beyond election night if there are close calls or legal disputes.