As the presidential race dominates the news, the 2024 US Congressional elections will play a crucial role in determining the legislative agenda and potential checks on presidential power. With razor-thin majorities in both the Senate and the House, control of Congress is expected to hinge on competitive toss-up seats, reflecting deep political polarization across the nation.
In the Senate, Republicans hold 49 seats against Democrats’ 47, with three Independents who generally support Democrats, giving them a technical majority with Vice President Kamala Harris's tie-breaking vote. However, RealClear Polling (RCP) shows Republicans gaining ground, potentially securing a slim 51-seat majority. Among these, Republican Jim Justice holds a strong lead in West Virginia, while Republican Tim Sheehy leads narrowly in Montana. Yet with key seats like Texas’s Ted Cruz’s now labeled as toss-ups, the Senate balance could remain precarious, hinging on individual races.
The House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold 220 seats to the Democrats’ 212, requires 218 seats for a majority. Forecasts are nearly even, with models like FiveThirtyEight and The Cook Political Report predicting a close race, with Republicans having a slight edge in control. Democrats hope to regain lost ground, with candidates like Indian American doctor Amish Shah aiming to reclaim seats narrowly lost in 2022.
The outcomes of these Congressional races are expected to shape the next president’s ability to enact policies. As the polls reflect a nearly tied popular vote, the battle for control of Congress is likely to come down to a handful of competitive seats across the country, each playing a decisive role in the direction of US policy for the next term.